Zimbabwe fades away

From StrategyPage:

August 8., 2008: President Robert Mugabe succeeded in driving his main political opponent, Morgan Tsvangirai, from the presidential election, with Tsnvagirai quitting just before the June 27 run-off date. Now Mugabe is once again in control. He is nominally president, but the trail of electoral thuggery and murder has left Mugabe with no political cover.

This is an affliction of many post-colonial nations. How do the old revolutionaries and their cadres go? Must the nations wait for them to die? Must they launch bloody rebellions? With the democratic path thwarted, Tsvangirai and the Movement for Democratic Change decided the price in innocent blood would be too steep.....

The title refers to an old song; Old Soldiers never die, they just fade away...and in this case the pun is that it is the country, not the old soldier, that is fading away...

Simba Makoni joins presidential race

from swradioafrica
05 February 2008

Former finance minister Simba Makoni has made a spectacular u-turn by announcing he will contest the presidential elections in 52 days time....
The more optimistic analysts are pointing to the support Makoni seems to enjoy from retired general Solomon Mujuru and other senior, but retired, army generals. The view is that he might attract the support of the army and disgruntled Zanu PF members who will throw their weight behind him. Geoff Hill, a journalist and author of the book, ‘What happens After Mugabe,’ believes Makoni is more of a problem for Mugabe than Tsvangirai. Hill says Makoni will probably get support from Zanu PF supporters unhappy with Mugabe, while MDC members are unlikely to defect to him. He says the failure of the MDC to unite had given Makoni the encouragement to stand.

Makoni shot to prominence after heading the Southern African Development Community for almost 9 years as Executive Secretary. He served as the country’s deputy minister for Agriculture at independence in 1980, led the government owned Zimpapers group in 1994, before becoming finance minister in 2000. He resigned the post over policy differences with Mugabe...

Could this man beat Mugabe?

From the First Post:

.....Mugabe's Zanu-PF power base has split, allowing the formation of a newly-constituted Patriotic Front party.

The man earmarked to be the next President is Simba Makoni, a charismatic candidate who was briefly finance minister and who is popular inside Zanu-PF and with the general public. Makoni was identified on Monday by the BBC News as a potential threat to Mugabe; but reporter John Simpson failed to reveal that Makoni represents a new party.....

Simba Makoni, the one-time finance minister, has split the Zanu-PF party, says Moses Moyo

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I'm not up to date on politics, so go to the article for details.

Mbeki says end of Zim crisis is in sight

From BusinessDay (Joburg)

PRESIDENT Thabo Mbeki has expressed confidence that a resolution to the Zimbabwe crisis will come to light within the next few days, says visiting Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern....

Ahern said the president had given him a detailed account on the progress of the talks between Zimbabwe's government and factions of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

"The president explained to us that he is within days ... of the final aspects of this. He is, I think, obviously working extremely hard on it, and is hopeful. He gave me what he believes are the sticking points, and his determination to try to work those through," said Ahern, whose two-day working visit to SA ended yesterday.

Two views on Ian Smith

This writer insists things were better under Smith for the average African.

This writer excoriates Smith, implying that if he hadn't stood in the way of democracy things would be fine in Zim today.

Actually, they are both missing the point.

Under Smith, if the PC world hadn't brought sanctions, things would have probably evolved faster into democracy...yet even with sanctions, the average Zimbabwean had little political power, but could earn a good living, and the government would have prevented him from starving.

Yet if Smith had allowed democracy, would Zim have evolved into a democracy such as Zambia or Malawi (both black run countries have had major human rights problems, dictators, and corruption)?

The key to Zim's prosperity is the same as every country: Keep the most productive people intact and happy, so they can make jobs for the poor to improve their lot.

The racism of Smith prevented this, but the last ten years prove Mugabe's solution, a Marxist purging of the productive, is worse.

And opposition leaders often disappeared into detention under Smith...now they disappear into London...

Post Mugabe quandry

As the Zimbabwean crisis deepens, analysts are already exploring which political party would be best equipped to turn around the country’s fortunes in the post-Mugabe era.

Many observers, including outgoing United States ambassador to Zimbabwe, Christopher Dell, have predicted the demise of President Robert Mugabe’s regime in six months. Mugabe has no choice but to step down by September this year, for the good of himself, the country and his ruling Zanu-PF party, said ZANU-PF insider Ibbo Mandaza....

Zimbabwe faces a combined presidential and parliamentary election early next year which many are pinning their hopes on to bring about much-needed change to the country. However, commentators say the poll may not in itself be the solution, even if it is held in a free and fair atmosphere.

It’s thought South African president Thabo Mbeki, who is currently seeking to mediate in the Zimbabwean political crisis, and Britain, the former colonial power, prefer a reformed ZANU-PF as the way forward.

But Arthur Mutambara, leader of one of the factions of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, said this option was unlikely to work.

“The international community, particularly western governments, have shown a keen interest in the jockeying for positions among ZANU-PF factions, which seems to imply that if any one of the factions were to successfully replace Mugabe they would consider normalising relations with Zimbabwe,” he wrote in an opinion piece for a Zimbabwean news site.

“The thinking seems to be that the problem is Robert Mugabe the person, and that anyone else will do just fine.”

In his piece, Mutambara argues that ZANU-PF as a political construct is beyond redemption and should not have a future in the new Zimbabwe, “First and foremost, the Zimbabwean crisis is bigger than the person of Robert Mugabe. There are institutional, structural and systemic dimensions to the challenges we are facing....

Just resign...

long editorial