What next for Zim?

from Reuters Africa

(nope, no bias here, folks, just move on)

Here are possible scenarios in Zimbabwe's political crisis.

WHAT IS MUGABE LIKELY TO DO? Mugabe says he has invited Tsvangirai to be sworn-in as prime minister and is expected to name his 15 ministers allocated under a stalled September power-sharing deal. By pressuring a reluctant Tsvangirai to join a government, Mugabe may be trying to portray his old foe as a spoiler.

never mind that the post will have no power, since Mugabe controls the military, money, and police...

WHAT CAN WEST DO IF DEADLOCK CONTINUES?

The United States has said it will no longer support a government that includes Mugabe and Britain has said Mugabe will have to step down if any power-sharing government is to succeed. Washington had been poised to help rescue Zimbabwe's collapsing economy as soon as the deal was implemented, including possible relief on $1.2 billion in debt to international institutions and the easing of sanctions. But Mugabe remains defiant and the West has little leverage over Zimbabwe. ...

not as long as China funds Mugabe and his military

Western foes can continue to withhold desperately needed aid critical to ending an economic and humanitarian catastrophe worsened by a cholera epidemic.

Not really. If you bothered to look, the west is continuing to send aid money. This allows Mugabe to spend money on arms, bribes to other countries, and of course parties for him and his friend.

Western countries will likely apply more targeted sanctions against those propping up Mugabe, but such measures have failed to weaken the 84-year-old leader in power since independence from Britain in 1980.

Because Mbeki and other African leaders are propping up Mugabe's government, and of course China is also helping by blocking stricter sanctions by opposing UN action.

WHAT CAN REGIONAL COUNTRIES DO?

The 15-countries in regional bloc SADC are better placed to apply pressure on Mugabe but critics say they lack the resolve to take strong action.

Am I the only one who thinks this isn't because they respect Mugabe, but because they are being bribed?

South Africa, the continent's biggest economy, has the most influence. It is Zimbabwe's main economic partner. Most of Zimbabwe's fuel comes through South Africa. South Africa is also a key source of electricity. Botswana and Zambia have taken a tough line against Mugabe. But other SADC countries are still awed by Mugabe's history as a liberation fighter and he has capitalised on this.

Mugabe says they lack the courage to use military force against his government.

They are probably right. That's the problem with international law: it allows the evil bullies to get away with genocide...

WHAT IF MUGABE FORMS A GOVERNMENT WITHOUT THE OPPOSITION?

The power-sharing deal would almost collapse and Mugabe is seen calling for fresh elections as it would be difficult to run a government without a parliamentary majority. Analysts say Mugabe would form a government without the MDC to force the opposition to pull out and blame it for the collapse of the deal.

and A**h***s like this writer will write stories framed so as to repeat Mugabe's deceitful version of the story...just ignore those missing activists, the rural people frightened by militias, and the starving afraid to say anything for fear they won't be given food...

Tsvangirai's MDC has said it would quit the talks if what it said were abductions and attacks on its members continued.....

WHAT HAPPENS IF A DEAL IS STRUCK SOON?

If Mugabe and Tsvangirai agree on a unity government regional countries are expected to mobilise an economic rescue package.

translation: If Tsvangirai insists on getting any real power, he will be kept out of the government and blamed for the continuing sanctions.. If he accepts a puppet position without power, Mugabe will have "won" and will get credit for his stonewalling of the opposition as if this were a good thing.