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Crucially, the entire military will report to Mugabe, while the smaller and lesser-armed police will report to Tsvangirai. Is this a recipe for civil war? Only if Tsvangirai is able to remove police Commissioner Augustine Chihuri.
Chihuri is one of the all-powerful, six-member Joint Operations Command (JOC). This is the military junta that assumed power when Mugabe lost the presidential election to Tsvangirai back in March. All the commanders of Zimbabwe’s armed forces, including the Chihuri, have openly said that they’ll never “surrender” to any authority other than Mugabe and Zanu-PF. Chihuri has been particularly vociferous in his condemnation of Tsvangirai and the MDC. During the latest elections, he was responsible for the suffering of thousands of opposition activists and supporters. Will he accept, or undermine and destroy his new political master?
And there’s no mention yet of who will control Zimbabwe’s feared Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO). This vast, sinister unit reports to Mugabe and infiltrated every element of Zimbabwe’s state institutions to ensure that everyone remained loyal to Zanu-PF. With the CIO looking on, will any police officer dare to support Tsvangirai?
One small glimmer of possible hope emerged last weekend, when a senior army general and a CIO chief held secret negotiations in South Africa with Mbeki’s people in an effort to secure amnesties from any future prosecution in return for supporting regime change in Zimbabwe.
This may mean real change could come out of the deal. ...
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